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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Cuyes Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cuyes Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 8 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
75%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Mjz · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 3 games
33%

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 803 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
365 picks · 366 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 257 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
346 picks · 730 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 469 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 507 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
305 picks · 629 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 46%
Hero pool strength57% Cuyes Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:36
Cuyes Esports 39%Shopify Rebellion 61%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMnz
55% · 71 game51% · 45 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Underlord
UnderlordILICH-
50% · 47 games53% · 38 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroMjz
49% · 50 games43% · 80 games
PangolierSabeRLight-
Pangolier
56% · 5 games
VenomancerSkem
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Cuyes Esports 37%Shopify Rebellion 63%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMnz
51% · 24 games46% · 63 games
WindrangerPakazs
Windranger
Sand King
Sand KingILICH-
43% · 56 games54% · 75 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixMjz
48% · 168 games56% · 43 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
56% · 67 games
SvenSkem
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2