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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 34 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
72%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
56%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 31 game
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 798 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
364 picks · 366 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 255 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
345 picks · 729 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 372 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 508 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
303 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Heroic 54%1w Team 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritK1
44% · 223 games50% · 180 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend4nalog
57% · 74 games49% · 176 games
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
53% · 323 games49% · 191 game
DoomCloud
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
48% · 268 games49% · 188 games
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerKJ
53% · 79 games50% · 232 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct43:22
Heroic 56%1w Team 44%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit4nalog
55% · 173 games49% · 129 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Alchemist
AlchemistK1
51% · 68 games45% · 130 games
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroKJ
53% · 98 games59% · 26 games
DazzleChira JUNIOR
Dazzle
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
50% · 170 games40% · 217 games
Phoenixswedenstrong
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
53% · 183 games54% · 190 games
WeaverRESPECT
Weaver
Game 3prediction missed5:40
Heroic 55%1w Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
49% · 17 games47% · 98 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Dazzle
Dazzle4nalog
63% · 33 games50% · 44 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
54% · 166 games46% · 182 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
42% · 192 games51% · 180 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
52% · 156 games56% · 60 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 60%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3