Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 31 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
Techies
rue · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
erase · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 21 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Rubick
rue · 17 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
377 picks · 797 bans
Hoodwink
360 picks · 363 bans
Rubick
350 picks · 251 bans
Weaver
344 picks · 724 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 502 bans
Phoenix
297 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:12
Yellow Submarine 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:15.
Game 2prediction missed9:29
Yellow Submarine 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by beastcoast in 35:37.
Game 3prediction missed14:24
Yellow Submarine 54%beastcoast 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by beastcoast in 27:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3