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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LOyd · 2 games
50%

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 17 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 797 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
360 picks · 363 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
350 picks · 251 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
344 picks · 724 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 502 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
297 picks · 626 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
Evil Rabbit 33%nouns 67%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaButterflyEffect
33% · 83 games57% · 192 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Sand King
Sand Kingxiaoyu154
58% · 78 games48% · 139 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickLOyd
48% · 321 game52% · 148 games
DoomGunnar
Doom
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenQYQX
59% · 238 games42% · 77 games
JakiroLelis
Jakiro
51% · 164 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct15:41
Evil Rabbit 32%nouns 68%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawxiaoyu154
46% · 164 games53% · 104 games
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireButterflyEffect
45% · 137 games57% · 82 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Sven
SvenQYQX
52% · 221 game49% · 152 games
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLOyd
51% · 51 game51% · 119 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
50% · 116 games
Shadow DemonLelis
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 81%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2