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Leon Masters #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 29 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 27 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 21 game
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 18 games
56%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 795 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
360 picks · 363 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
351 picks · 251 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
344 picks · 723 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 372 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 502 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
297 picks · 624 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
PSG Quest 76%HULIGANI 24%
The model gave 76% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Game 2prediction missed14:32
PSG Quest 63%HULIGANI 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTA2000
48% · 99 games48% · 112 games
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Chaos Knight
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
50% · 61 game54% · 169 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
46% · 233 games50% · 203 games
Dark SeerCorrupted
Dark Seer
Weaver
WeaverOmaR
44% · 167 games56% · 87 games
Spirit BreakerHellscream
Spirit Breaker
Disruptor
DisruptorDukalis
58% · 84 games52% · 73 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct25:12
PSG Quest 64%HULIGANI 36%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
45% · 148 games47% · 97 games
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
59% · 89 games50% · 169 games
Primal BeastCorrupted
Primal Beast
Puck
PuckNo!ob
54% · 181 game50% · 124 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
47% · 31 game42% · 150 games
MorphlingHellscream
Morphling
Sven
SvenDukalis
54% · 237 games49% · 146 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 76%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3