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Leon Masters #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 26 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 14 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Lukas · 14 games
43%

One Move

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
377 picks · 793 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
359 picks · 361 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 250 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
345 picks · 721 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 500 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
307 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
296 picks · 624 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total56% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Nemiga Gaming 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLukas
52% · 216 games57% · 162 games
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
48% · 258 games52% · 210 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
48% · 99 games60% · 43 games
Legion CommanderSSS
Legion Commander
Snapfire
Snapfireforcemajor
44% · 131 game46% · 189 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Jakiro
Jakirojesv
47% · 79 games49% · 179 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct11:23
Nemiga Gaming 46%One Move 54%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLukas
52% · 248 games55% · 256 games
Templar Assassinряф^^
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMikSa`
49% · 167 games50% · 352 games
SvenWoE
Sven
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
48% · 356 games51% · 300 games
MarsSSS
Mars
Rubick
Rubickjesv
48% · 327 games46% · 183 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkforcemajor
50% · 285 games51% · 292 games
PhoenixFng
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct6:23
Nemiga Gaming 47%One Move 53%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 24:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLukas
50% · 131 game61% · 48 games
Legion CommanderSSS
Legion Commander
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
54% · 113 games53% · 200 games
Ember Spiritряф^^
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
51% · 149 games50% · 190 games
WindrangerWoE
Windranger
Jakiro
Jakiroforcemajor
40% · 80 games58% · 94 games
Treant ProtectorFng
Treant Protector
Rubick
Rubickjesv
41% · 212 games45% · 153 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 56%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3