Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 22 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 35 games
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 30 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ceb · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
376 picks · 789 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
347 picks · 247 bans
Weaver
342 picks · 716 bans
Clockwerk
315 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
309 picks · 496 bans
Gyrocopter
304 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
295 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:26
Heroic 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistK1
Ember Spiritbzm
Sand King4nalog
Troll WarlordTimado
DoomDavai
WindrangerWisper
ClockwerkKJ
Nyx AssassinAri
HoodwinkScofield
JakiroKaori
Game 2prediction correct4:24
Heroic 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 16:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritDavai
BroodmotherTimado
GyrocopterK1
TimbersawWisper
Batrider4nalog
Dragon Knightbzm
EnigmaKJ
EnchantressKaori
SvenScofield
SnapfireAri
Game 3prediction correct0:0
Heroic 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3