Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
LOyd · 2 games
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Fusion
Hoodwinkoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Sven
Wits · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Michael · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
377 picks · 780 bans
Hoodwink
351 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
342 picks · 246 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 708 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
305 picks · 499 bans
Gyrocopter
303 picks · 370 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 27%
Hero pool strength64% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Evil Rabbit 59%Fusion 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Fusion in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerButterflyEffect
SvenWits
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Templar AssassinLeostyle
Nyx AssassinLOyd
SnapfireMichael
EnchantressQYQX
Elder TitanPrada
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Evil Rabbit 57%Fusion 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Dragon KnightWits
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Keeper of the LightLeostyle
HoodwinkLOyd
Spirit BreakerMichael
SvenQYQX
EnchantressPrada
Game 3prediction correct25:6
Evil Rabbit 57%Fusion 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaButterflyEffect
MorphlingWits
Primal Beastxiaoyu154
Queen of PainLeostyle
WeaverLOyd
ChenPrada
JakiroQYQX
HoodwinkMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 64%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3