Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fusionloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 22 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 19 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Rubick
Lelis · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Michael · 3 games
Jakiro
Michael · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
371 picks · 775 bans
Hoodwink
348 picks · 345 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 241 bans
Weaver
339 picks · 701 bans
Clockwerk
315 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
304 picks · 497 bans
Gyrocopter
300 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
289 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 30%
Hero pool strength62% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:14
nouns 75%Fusion 25%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightYuma
SvenWits
PuckCopy
SnapfireLeostyle
PangolierGunnar
ChenPrada
Shadow DemonLelis
GrimstrokeMichael
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction missed
nouns 90%Fusion 10%
The model gave 90% on nouns — the game was taken by Fusion.
Game 3prediction correct23:14
nouns 75%Fusion 25%
The model gave 75% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
MorphlingWits
PuckCopy
Ember SpiritLeostyle
PangolierGunnar
SnapfireMichael
JakiroLelis
ClockwerkPrada
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 90%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3