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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 24 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
46%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%

Apex Genesis

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
371 picks · 773 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
348 picks · 343 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
339 picks · 699 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 241 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
304 picks · 495 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
287 picks · 614 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:2
BOOM Esports 55%Apex Genesis 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenParker
50% · 235 games52% · 59 games
BroodmotherFayde
Broodmother
Sand King
Sand KingDarkMago
52% · 40 games48% · 184 games
Dragon KnightSammyboy
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSacred
51% · 197 games61% · 133 games
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
48% · 120 games50% · 162 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Phoenix
PhoenixYadomi
45% · 238 games46% · 292 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct36:28
BOOM Esports 56%Apex Genesis 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 50:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
47% · 273 games54% · 119 games
Chaos KnightSammyboy
Chaos Knight
Rubick
RubickDarkMago
46% · 296 games46% · 145 games
SnapfireW1sh-
Snapfire
Sand King
Sand KingSacred
50% · 40 games53% · 253 games
BrewmasterFayde
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
50% · 223 games55% · 232 games
PhoenixYamSun
Phoenix
Sven
SvenYadomi
48% · 216 games53% · 299 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2