Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 22 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 19 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Rubick
Lelis · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
MOUZ
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 44 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 37 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 31 game
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 30 games
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
367 picks · 767 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 338 bans
Rubick
335 picks · 238 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 695 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
303 picks · 489 bans
Gyrocopter
298 picks · 370 bans
Phoenix
286 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:38
nouns 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYuma
MorphlingUlnit
Ember SpiritCopy
Sand KingSupream^
DoomGunnar
EnigmaForce
EnchantressFly
Jakirobengan
WeaverLelis
RubickNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed13:27
nouns 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuma
MorphlingUlnit
Void SpiritCopy
Dark SeerForce
BrewmasterGunnar
Sand KingSupream^
HoodwinkLelis
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
JakiroFly
Witch Doctorbengan
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2