Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
Wits · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Prada · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Michael · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Techies
Michael · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
364 picks · 766 bans
Hoodwink
343 picks · 334 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 693 bans
Rubick
334 picks · 236 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
300 picks · 489 bans
Gyrocopter
298 picks · 370 bans
Phoenix
285 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:12
Shopify Rebellion 82%Fusion 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightPakazs
SvenWits
InvokerYopaj
Void SpiritLeostyle
MarsSabeRLight-
JakiroMichael
EnchantressSkem
RubickPrada
Game 2prediction correct35:6
Shopify Rebellion 82%Fusion 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 24:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightPakazs
SvenWits
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
TinyLeostyle
InvokerYopaj
JakiroMichael
EnchantressSkem
PhoenixPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 95%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2