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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 24 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 13 games
31%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%

Execration

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 9 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Marci
Marcisignature
Tino- · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
14%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
cml · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Abat · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 759 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 329 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
333 picks · 235 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 367 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 488 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
284 picks · 603 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
BOOM Esports 52%Execration 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenParker
52% · 130 games46% · 112 games
Troll WarlordAbat
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSacred
45% · 59 games52% · 51 game
IoTino-
Io
Pangolier
PangolierDarkMago
42% · 115 games58% · 78 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroYadomi
61% · 44 games46% · 128 games
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Oracle
OracleMatthew
62% · 21 game
Game 2prediction correct32:18
BOOM Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
51% · 110 games56% · 125 games
UrsaAbat
Ursa
Rubick
RubickDarkMago
52% · 169 games41% · 161 game
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
little data44% · 119 games
SnapfireShanks
Snapfire
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
57% · 102 games52% · 99 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Sven
SvenYadomi
47% · 123 games
Game 3prediction missed8:30
BOOM Esports 55%Execration 45%
The model gave 55% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendParker
48% · 45 games49% · 90 games
RazorAbat
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixSacred
49% · 191 game50% · 133 games
BrewmasterTino-
Brewmaster
Sand King
Sand KingDarkMago
52% · 49 games45% · 181 game
RubickShanks
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverYadomi
55% · 208 games53% · 107 games
Svencml
Sven
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
50% · 18 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 60%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3