Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
DMSloss 1:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Hryvnialoss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DMS
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 3 games
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
Jakiro
aik · 2 games
Snapfire
Daxak · 2 games
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
377 picks · 759 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 326 bans
Rubick
344 picks · 234 bans
Weaver
337 picks · 692 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 469 bans
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
305 picks · 519 bans
Phoenix
289 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% DMS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
DMS 54%Team Hryvnia 46%
The model gave 54% on DMS — the game was taken by DMS in 23:34.
Game 2prediction missed10:31
DMS 54%Team Hryvnia 46%
The model gave 54% on DMS — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia in 37:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteDMS · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2