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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DMSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 21 game
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 17 games
65%

DMS

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
prblms · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Daxak · 2 games
50%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 750 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 311 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 232 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
337 picks · 683 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 381 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 536 bans
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
286 picks · 607 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% DMS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:19
HULIGANI 57%DMS 43%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
55% · 98 games56% · 150 games
WeaverShigetsu
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
43% · 158 games53% · 55 games
Earth Spiritmellojul
Earth Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
54% · 77 games56% · 131 game
DoomDaxak
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroHellscream
49% · 60 games39% · 186 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
44% · 187 games54% · 58 games
Skywrath Mageprblms
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct30:8
HULIGANI 56%DMS 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 20:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenv1olent-
49% · 72 games54% · 98 games
Chaos KnightShigetsu
Chaos Knight
Doom
DoomCorrupted
53% · 102 games52% · 30 games
Dazzlemellojul
Dazzle
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
51% · 43 games60% · 12 games
VisageDaxak
Visage
Weaver
WeaverHellscream
46% · 150 games49% · 84 games
Monkey Kingprblms
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
46% · 40 games47% · 183 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 62%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2