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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Kalmychataloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
35%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 20 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 20 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
53%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 16 games
69%

Kalmychata

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 4 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 4 games
25%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 731 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 292 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
338 picks · 225 bans
48%
Weaver
Weaver
337 picks · 660 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 379 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 531 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
287 picks · 342 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:26
HULIGANI 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinv1olent-
49% · 159 games46% · 201 game
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerMirage
54% · 174 games43% · 68 games
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMiyaoo
50% · 207 games54% · 222 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireOneJey
52% · 160 games45% · 336 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Sven
SvenPanto
53% · 267 games53% · 140 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct40:14
HULIGANI 53%Kalmychata 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
53% · 90 games47% · 58 games
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerMirage
50% · 118 games48% · 153 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaMiyaoo
53% · 58 games52% · 196 games
Vengeful SpiritActor
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickPanto
42% · 219 games68% · 11 games
Bounty Hunterxsvampire
Bounty Hunter
Monkey King
Monkey KingOneJey
52% · 67 games50% · 134 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2