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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
33%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 53 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 48 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 727 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 288 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
336 picks · 224 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
336 picks · 655 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 378 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
305 picks · 530 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
287 picks · 342 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total78% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:5
Team Liquid 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
49% · 215 games56% · 302 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
47% · 93 games45% · 248 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
53% · 74 games46% · 35 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Morphling
MorphlingBoxi
45% · 149 games48% · 57 games
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
Ancient Apparition
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
55% · 172 games55% · 61 game
JakiroCr1t-
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed25:14
Team Liquid 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
58% · 46 games45% · 85 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckNisha
54% · 212 games41% · 203 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
50% · 168 games47% · 17 games
Legion CommanderATF
Legion Commander
Marci
MarciBoxi
60% · 88 games48% · 127 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
47% · 61 game52% · 143 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 78%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2