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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 45 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 40 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 26 games
50%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 52 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 48 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 29 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 729 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 286 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
335 picks · 652 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
334 picks · 222 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 377 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
303 picks · 532 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 343 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:25
Tundra Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPure~
54% · 126 games57% · 68 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRAMZES666
50% · 141 game50% · 193 games
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTopson
48% · 164 games52% · 47 games
SlarkATF
Slark
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
56% · 27 games41% · 92 games
SnapfireCr1t-
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
49% · 63 games46% · 121 game
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct14:30
Tundra Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
44% · 315 games45% · 194 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
50% · 207 games59% · 200 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Snapfire
SnapfireTopson
51% · 249 games37% · 152 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenWhitemon
64% · 138 games49% · 198 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker9Class
54% · 108 games46% · 273 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2