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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 21 game
81%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 19 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
61%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
tOfu · 17 games
59%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 23 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 729 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
341 picks · 285 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
334 picks · 221 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 651 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 377 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
302 picks · 532 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 343 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total63% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
Gaimin Gladiators 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
47% · 83 games44% · 167 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierQuinn
48% · 259 games50% · 153 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordAce
50% · 96 games51% · 339 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
51% · 177 games49% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinBoxi
Nyx Assassin
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
53% · 197 games56% · 106 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:11
Gaimin Gladiators 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
58% · 63 games45% · 77 games
Troll WarlordmiCKe
Troll Warlord
Dazzle
DazzleQuinn
55% · 7 games55% · 22 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
54% · 108 games38% · 138 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Weaver
WeavertOfu
59% · 112 games38% · 78 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
61% · 142 games45% · 117 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 63%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2