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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 45 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 25 games
52%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%

BETBOOM TEAM

Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 29 games
66%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 25 games
68%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 24 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 21 game
48%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 723 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
337 picks · 284 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 647 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
331 picks · 220 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 375 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 534 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 346 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
47% · 117 games54% · 107 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Rubick
RubickTopson
43% · 215 games46% · 48 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
53% · 137 games50% · 32 games
Sand KingMieRo
Sand King
Chen
ChenWhitemon
46% · 58 games53% · 257 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Marci
Marci9Class
40% · 41 game62% · 124 games
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct17:24
Tundra Esports 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
43% · 177 games50% · 156 games
Troll WarlordNightfall
Troll Warlord
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRAMZES666
45% · 236 games52% · 203 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Rubick
RubickTopson
41% · 321 game56% · 234 games
BrewmasterMieRo
Brewmaster
Marci
Marci9Class
54% · 78 games53% · 300 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Sven
SvenWhitemon
50% · 222 games56% · 141 game
SnapfireTORONTOTOKYO
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct26:10
Tundra Esports 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
46% · 177 games51% · 159 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
51% · 137 games48% · 68 games
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingTopson
59% · 33 games45% · 55 games
TidehunterMieRo
Tidehunter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker9Class
51% · 105 games42% · 140 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
58% · 68 games53% · 98 games
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3