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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
52%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
30%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 45 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 35 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 25 games
52%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 719 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
332 picks · 279 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
331 picks · 643 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
325 picks · 219 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 472 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
297 picks · 349 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 540 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:7
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
58% · 155 games44% · 155 games
TerrorbladePure~
Terrorblade
Doom
Doom33
52% · 204 games47% · 191 game
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
54% · 173 games47% · 28 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Io
IoBoxi
50% · 95 games48% · 308 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Sven
SveniNSaNiA
52% · 226 games49% · 171 game
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Team Liquid 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
40% · 117 games54% · 81 game
Chaos KnightPure~
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyNisha
50% · 237 games56% · 66 games
EnigmaRAMZES666
Enigma
Visage
Visage33
48% · 32 games58% · 27 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBoxi
46% · 56 games53% · 272 games
RubickWhitemon
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
43% · 63 games54% · 59 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed26:16
Team Liquid 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
47% · 189 games54% · 164 games
Chaos KnightPure~
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyNisha
50% · 237 games50% · 46 games
Sand KingTopson
Sand King
Pangolier
Pangolier33
49% · 234 games56% · 164 games
EnigmaRAMZES666
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
46% · 175 games47% · 532 games
RubickWhitemon
Rubick
Sven
SveniNSaNiA
43% · 181 game56% · 110 games
Spirit Breaker9Class
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3