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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 50 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 28 games
79%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 716 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
330 picks · 276 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 638 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 472 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
299 picks · 349 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 537 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:6
Team Falcons 62%Gaimin Gladiators 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
55% · 90 games53% · 158 games
Templar AssassinQuinn
Templar Assassin
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
49% · 315 games49% · 172 games
Windrangerdyrachyo
Windranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
43% · 96 games50% · 97 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
52% · 185 games45% · 345 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
47% · 195 games57% · 109 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Game 2prediction missed9:19
Team Falcons 59%Gaimin Gladiators 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
48% · 202 games51% · 111 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
55% · 258 games52% · 210 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterATF
47% · 85 games43% · 90 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 179 games54% · 131 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Windranger
WindrangerCr1t-
48% · 112 games49% · 294 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed10:28
Team Falcons 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 28:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarATF
50% · 25 games59% · 94 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Sven
SvenSkiter
47% · 162 games55% · 166 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
50% · 202 games52% · 149 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 189 games58% · 96 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
42% · 55 games48% · 128 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3