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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 25 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
44%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 28 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 25 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Malik · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 716 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 635 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 273 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 471 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 371 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
301 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 538 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
OG 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
44% · 153 games56% · 59 games
BroodmotherTA2000
Broodmother
Mars
Marsbzm
53% · 167 games49% · 77 games
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
41% · 114 games51% · 178 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
45% · 153 games57% · 202 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
49% · 16 games56% · 87 games
EnigmaDukalis
Enigma
Game 2prediction missed13:24
OG 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
48% · 97 games54% · 176 games
Faceless VoidTA2000
Faceless Void
Venomancer
VenomancerCeb
54% · 34 games52% · 192 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierWisper
49% · 298 games53% · 202 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Invoker
Invokerbzm
54% · 134 games45% · 67 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickAri
49% · 309 games45% · 235 games
SvenOmaR
Sven
Game 3prediction missed11:32
OG 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
48% · 196 games58% · 119 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomWisper
51% · 195 games48% · 140 games
BeastmasterMalik
Beastmaster
Invoker
Invokerbzm
54% · 115 games51% · 327 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireCeb
44% · 143 games52% · 253 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
51% · 255 games41% · 65 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3