?
arrow_backBack to match
RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Monteloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 25 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
36%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Lukas · 14 games
43%

Monte

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 13 games
46%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 11 games
36%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 11 games
27%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 697 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 464 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
320 picks · 614 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 250 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 207 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 540 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
Nemiga Gaming 57%Monte 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Monte in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
47% · 83 games44% · 45 games
Shadow FiendMoonlight
Shadow Fiend
Zeus
Zeusnicky`cool
49% · 67 games49% · 188 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsMikSa`
46% · 175 games49% · 25 games
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
Sand King
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkforcemajor
52% · 167 games51% · 212 games
RubickQBFY
Rubick
Jakiro
Jakirojesv
56% · 56 games54% · 78 games
Elder TitanEcNart
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Nemiga Gaming 57%Monte 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLowskill
49% · 151 game42% · 19 games
Sand KingVladikTheHtiviy
Sand King
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
51% · 185 games45% · 104 games
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
54% · 201 game54% · 230 games
BatriderMoonlight
Batrider
Snapfire
Snapfirejesv
48% · 180 games54% · 150 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Jakiro
Jakiroforcemajor
50% · 37 games47% · 251 game
PhoenixEcNart
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2