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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
59%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
75%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 687 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 376 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 459 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
312 picks · 236 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 351 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 202 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 542 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total57% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Aurora Gaming 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
43% · 220 games54% · 86 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireLorenof
45% · 94 games57% · 167 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsJabz
49% · 142 games58% · 92 games
InvokerQuinn
Invoker
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
45% · 210 games52% · 162 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinQ
54% · 31 game49% · 190 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed34:8
Aurora Gaming 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingLorenof
55% · 80 games42% · 169 games
Templar AssassinQuinn
Templar Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
57% · 144 games44% · 67 games
Ursadyrachyo
Ursa
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
42% · 134 games52% · 17 games
Sand KingAce
Sand King
Mars
MarsJabz
56% · 196 games49% · 181 game
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
58% · 95 games50% · 215 games
Shadow DemonSeleri
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2