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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 18 games
28%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 35 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 24 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 22 games
68%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 687 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 376 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 459 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 602 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
312 picks · 236 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
310 picks · 351 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 202 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 542 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:35
LGD Gaming 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by OG in 24:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
39% · 16 games53% · 198 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
53% · 9 games47% · 125 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Mars
Marsniu
51% · 161 game54% · 55 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderPyw
49% · 193 games50% · 32 games
VenomancerCeb
Venomancer
Disruptor
Disruptory`
54% · 92 games45% · 61 game
Monkey KingAri
Monkey King
Game 2prediction missed31:12
LGD Gaming 47%OG 53%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
49% · 15 games52% · 107 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
49% · 156 games44% · 129 games
WindrangerTimado
Windranger
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
47% · 274 games52% · 202 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingPyw
49% · 65 games60% · 73 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiy`
47% · 14 games57% · 13 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2