Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 34 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 22 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
Scofield · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 687 bans
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 376 bans
Clockwerk
319 picks · 459 bans
Weaver
315 picks · 602 bans
Hoodwink
312 picks · 236 bans
Dark Willow
310 picks · 351 bans
Rubick
310 picks · 202 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 542 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Team Falcons 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 22:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkATF
SvenK1
WeaverSkiter
Storm Spirit4nalog
PangolierMalr1ne
SlardarDavai
EnchantressSneyking
RubickScofield
HoodwinkCr1t-
SnapfireKJ
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Falcons 73%Heroic 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSkiter
WindrangerK1
SlarkATF
Batrider4nalog
TinyMalr1ne
AlchemistKJ
EnchantressSneyking
MarsDavai
SnapfireCr1t-
HoodwinkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2