Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:2series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 48 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 31 game
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 678 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 373 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 458 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 599 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 352 bans
Rubick
310 picks · 198 bans
Hoodwink
308 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
beastcoast 13%Tundra Esports 87%
The model gave 87% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:08.
Game 2prediction correct35:19
beastcoast 13%Tundra Esports 87%
The model gave 87% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 87%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2