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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
71%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
72%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 17 games
53%

Blacklist International

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 676 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 373 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 454 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 352 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 594 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
309 picks · 194 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
305 picks · 225 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 534 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:5
Heroic 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin4nalog
49% · 203 games47% · 161 game
RazorAbed
Razor
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
51% · 201 game50% · 237 games
WeaverNatsumi
Weaver
Slardar
SlardarDavai
51% · 126 games54% · 156 games
MarsGabbi
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
49% · 221 game46% · 245 games
PhoenixTims
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKJ
53% · 209 games48% · 161 game
SvenJaunuel
Sven
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Heroic 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenK1
51% · 116 games51% · 130 games
LifestealerNatsumi
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey King4nalog
53% · 77 games46% · 12 games
Sand KingAbed
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDavai
48% · 105 games52% · 184 games
DoomGabbi
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
48% · 155 games42% · 149 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
52% · 179 games55% · 157 games
DisruptorJaunuel
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2