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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 33 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 25 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 25 games
68%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 29 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 24 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zayac · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
577 picks · 355 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 576 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
468 picks · 248 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 380 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 544 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 893 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 827 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 459 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total83% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:26
Zero Tenacity 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
45% · 300 games58% · 211 games
Nature's Prophetgotthejuice
Nature's Prophet
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
47% · 229 games53% · 160 games
KezNiku
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
44% · 383 games47% · 67 games
Enigmapma
Enigma
Mirana
MiranadEsire
47% · 26 games54% · 466 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoOz
50% · 180 games56% · 214 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Zero Tenacity 30%Natus Vincere 70%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
41% · 374 games43% · 257 games
Shadow Fiendgotthejuice
Shadow Fiend
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
53% · 110 games47% · 430 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Viper
ViperWorick
56% · 114 games50% · 178 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
46% · 416 games55% · 148 games
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickMoOz
51% · 181 game59% · 182 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 83%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2