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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 20 games
30%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 16 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 13 games
85%

Team Spirit

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 26 games
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 668 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 586 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 190 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 216 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
287 picks · 535 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:3
LGD Gaming 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
49% · 419 games46% · 348 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEcho
49% · 209 games51% · 201 game
DoomCollapse
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
55% · 375 games54% · 240 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
52% · 255 games42% · 411 games
RubickMiposhka
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titany`
49% · 162 games52% · 220 games
SvenMira
Sven
Game 2prediction correct15:37
LGD Gaming 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
51% · 44 games43% · 47 games
Shadow FiendLarl
Shadow Fiend
Razor
RazorEcho
39% · 83 games47% · 58 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Mars
Marsniu
52% · 123 games43% · 10 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
58% · 135 games61% · 142 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
49% · 110 games48% · 238 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2