?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 3 games
33%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 19 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 668 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 586 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 190 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 216 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
287 picks · 535 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:20
Aurora Gaming 47%Heroic 53%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:04:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
54% · 69 games49% · 212 games
Templar AssassinK1
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireLorenof
47% · 115 games54% · 165 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Rubick
RubickQ
52% · 266 games44% · 63 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Pangolier
PangolierJabz
49% · 287 games49% · 133 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroOli
57% · 47 games49% · 211 games
SvenKJ
Sven
Game 2prediction missed33:14
Aurora Gaming 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
54% · 98 games50% · 120 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Morphling
MorphlingLorenof
56% · 158 games48% · 195 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
52% · 192 games40% · 128 games
SnapfireDavai
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
53% · 200 games44% · 331 game
RubickScofield
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverOli
51% · 165 games58% · 39 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2