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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 34 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 28 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 21 game
67%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 668 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 372 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
310 picks · 586 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 190 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 216 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
287 picks · 535 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:19
OG 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 14:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsWisper
50% · 136 games47% · 36 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
54% · 151 game46% · 175 games
RazorQuinn
Razor
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
50% · 147 games52% · 89 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorCeb
47% · 69 games46% · 143 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
58% · 174 games48% · 234 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed48:32
OG 47%Gaimin Gladiators 53%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by OG in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTimado
45% · 121 game48% · 81 game
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
47% · 89 games47% · 36 games
VenomancerAce
Venomancer
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
44% · 229 games54% · 202 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
Batrider
BatriderCeb
55% · 232 games51% · 253 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
36% · 6 games58% · 105 games
Monkey KingtOfu
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2