Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 28 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 26 games
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 24 games
Lion
Save- · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 18 games
Team Liquid
Rubick
Boxi · 30 games
Luna
miCKe · 29 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 28 games
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
385 picks · 661 bans
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 367 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 452 bans
Dark Willow
311 picks · 351 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 581 bans
Rubick
303 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
294 picks · 212 bans
Pangolier
285 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNightfall
Keeper of the LightNisha
BeastmasterMieRo
Monkey KingmiCKe
SnapfiregpK~
Doom33
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
HoodwinkBoxi
LionSave-
JakiroiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed9:18
BETBOOM TEAM 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerNightfall
RazormiCKe
DoomMieRo
Visage33
Dragon KnightgpK~
TinyNisha
RubickSave-
OracleBoxi
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
SveniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2