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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team NextUpwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
20%
Sven
Sven
paw · 5 games
40%

Team NextUp

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
so bad · 14 games
36%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirage · 7 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 6 games
33%
Sven
Sven
7jesu · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 660 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 368 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 452 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
309 picks · 582 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 189 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
295 picks · 211 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
284 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:26
Dragon Esports 55%Team NextUp 45%
The model gave 55% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 26:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenpaw
49% · 202 games51% · 146 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
51% · 88 games46% · 233 games
RubickMirage
Rubick
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
52% · 307 games48% · 91 game
Razorzvёzd
Razor
53% · 127 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed25:39
Dragon Esports 54%Team NextUp 46%
The model gave 54% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Team NextUp in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverpaw
49% · 140 games46% · 123 games
Windranger7jesu
Windranger
Tiny
Tinydualrazee
45% · 217 games56% · 110 games
Razorzvёzd
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
48% · 95 games57% · 52 games
EarthshakerMirage
Earthshaker
52% · 167 games
ClockwerkVaniLLl
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 57%
Series resultTeam NextUp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2