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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 19 games
74%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%

Blacklist International

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 3 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 658 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 368 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 576 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 187 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
291 picks · 208 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 104 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Blacklist International
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:30
Gaimin Gladiators 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 54:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
44% · 41 game46% · 43 games
Chaos KnightNatsumi
Chaos Knight
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
48% · 110 games52% · 97 games
DoomGabbi
Doom
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAce
54% · 75 games49% · 172 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
48% · 110 games57% · 80 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingSeleri
51% · 90 games54% · 34 games
WarlockJaunuel
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Gaimin Gladiators 70%Blacklist International 30%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
47% · 160 games54% · 121 game
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Marci
Marcidyrachyo
55% · 72 games46% · 137 games
RazorNatsumi
Razor
Underlord
UnderlordAce
54% · 79 games50% · 107 games
Keeper of the LightGabbi
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
55% · 208 games42% · 141 game
EnchantressJaunuel
Enchantress
Io
IoSeleri
52% · 118 games45% · 131 game
ClockwerkTims
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 85%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2