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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 25 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 19 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Scofield · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 658 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 368 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 450 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
307 picks · 576 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 187 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
291 picks · 208 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 104 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:23
Team Spirit 51%Heroic 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
48% · 116 games36% · 133 games
Vengeful SpiritK1
Vengeful Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleLarl
62% · 53 games52% · 179 games
Tiny4nalog
Tiny
Mars
MarsCollapse
53% · 219 games46% · 88 games
BrewmasterDavai
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
60% · 7 games44% · 79 games
WeaverScofield
Weaver
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
57% · 100 games51% · 16 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:39
Team Spirit 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherCollapse
59% · 51 game55% · 116 games
SvenK1
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
49% · 12 games42% · 118 games
Ember Spirit4nalog
Ember Spirit
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
55% · 129 games49% · 125 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
54% · 201 game46% · 166 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
47% · 210 games44% · 78 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2