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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Luna
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 29 games
55%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 27 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
58%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 50 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 32 games
69%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 26 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 656 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 369 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 449 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 572 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 184 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 377 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:13
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 145 games50% · 180 games
TerrorbladePure~
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
58% · 117 games46% · 198 games
MarsRAMZES666
Mars
Razor
RazormiCKe
45% · 160 games47% · 124 games
SnapfireTopson
Snapfire
Morphling
MorphlingBoxi
49% · 146 games55% · 93 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
51% · 87 games46% · 60 games
Muerta9Class
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct13:29
Team Liquid 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
52% · 105 games37% · 193 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
51% · 39 games53% · 105 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
57% · 115 games59% · 134 games
EnigmaRAMZES666
Enigma
Morphling
MorphlingBoxi
47% · 130 games50% · 82 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Rubick
RubickiNSaNiA
51% · 253 games44% · 128 games
SnapfireWhitemon
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2