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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 29 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 27 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 23 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 656 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 369 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 449 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 572 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
300 picks · 184 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 377 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:22
Xtreme Gaming 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
56% · 95 games50% · 123 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingXxs
55% · 13 games53% · 111 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritXm
45% · 234 games46% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroXinQ
47% · 32 games46% · 193 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
48% · 210 games59% · 72 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed14:39
Xtreme Gaming 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 47:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
48% · 149 games48% · 132 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendXm
54% · 57 games43% · 167 games
TinyNo!ob
Tiny
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
47% · 176 games58% · 49 games
Elder TitanMalik
Elder Titan
Earthshaker
EarthshakerXinQ
60% · 57 games48% · 86 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiDy
49% · 15 games47% · 20 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2