Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
NS Clubloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TpaBoMaH Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NS Club
No games played over 6 months.
TpaBoMaH Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
576 picks · 354 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
465 picks · 246 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
390 picks · 544 bans
Puck
333 picks · 890 bans
Beastmaster
324 picks · 824 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% NS Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% TpaBoMaH Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
NS Club 29%TpaBoMaH Club 71%
The model gave 71% on TpaBoMaH Club — the game was taken by TpaBoMaH Club.
Game 2prediction correct
NS Club 29%TpaBoMaH Club 71%
The model gave 71% on TpaBoMaH Club — the game was taken by TpaBoMaH Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteTpaBoMaH Club · 71%
Series resultTpaBoMaH Club 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2