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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 18 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 13 games
85%

Blacklist International

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 366 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 563 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
295 picks · 183 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 196 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
LGD Gaming 45%Blacklist International 55%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 1:00:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistshiro
58% · 113 games48% · 231 game
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Razor
RazorEcho
45% · 178 games53% · 41 game
Shadow FiendAbed
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
Pangolierniu
45% · 302 games56% · 366 games
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyPyw
50% · 304 games49% · 118 games
SnapfireTims
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
50% · 52 games48% · 193 games
ClockwerkJaunuel
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed27:3
LGD Gaming 45%Blacklist International 55%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEcho
47% · 48 games48% · 108 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Windranger
Windrangershiro
49% · 200 games51% · 279 games
TinyAbed
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
57% · 261 game55% · 260 games
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
47% · 223 games52% · 210 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Sven
Sveny`
48% · 240 games47% · 115 games
Elder TitanJaunuel
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2