?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 36 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 31 game
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 28 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 20 games
65%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 19 games
74%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 366 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 563 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
295 picks · 183 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 196 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
OG 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendTimado
47% · 41 game58% · 86 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
38% · 85 games50% · 43 games
Night StalkerDavai
Night Stalker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
43% · 155 games49% · 184 games
Batrider4nalog
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
44% · 168 games63% · 40 games
MarciScofield
Marci
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiCeb
47% · 15 games63% · 111 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed27:11
OG 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 21:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
50% · 182 games57% · 95 games
AlchemistK1
Alchemist
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 191 game48% · 202 games
Puck4nalog
Puck
Mars
MarsWisper
47% · 221 game51% · 146 games
SnapfireDavai
Snapfire
Venomancer
VenomancerCeb
44% · 58 games51% · 344 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Rubick
RubickAri
44% · 337 games57% · 202 games
GrimstrokeKJ
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 52%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2