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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 30 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 366 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 563 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
295 picks · 183 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 196 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 47%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Team Falcons 69%Aurora Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
57% · 3 games58% · 207 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Sven
SvenSkiter
43% · 191 game54% · 98 games
Keeper of the LightLorenof
Keeper of the Light
Doom
DoomATF
43% · 184 games58% · 82 games
EnigmaJabz
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 185 games53% · 226 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
41% · 112 games59% · 62 games
IoOli
Io
Game 2prediction correct19:8
Team Falcons 71%Aurora Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
50% · 224 games55% · 250 games
Gyrocopter23savage
Gyrocopter
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
48% · 344 games46% · 167 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 258 games57% · 281 game
TinyLorenof
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
51% · 162 games49% · 304 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
45% · 44 games48% · 30 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2