Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 41 game
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 37 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 35 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 28 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 27 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
379 picks · 648 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 364 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 445 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 558 bans
Hoodwink
291 picks · 188 bans
Rubick
291 picks · 180 bans
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
beastcoast 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:58.
Game 2prediction correct20:10
beastcoast 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2