BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GamerLegionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Hoodwink
Ekki · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 8 games
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 7 games
GamerLegion
Dark Willow
Bignum · 21 game
Miranasignature
Speeed · 21 game
Hoodwink
Bignum · 19 games
Kezoften banned
RCY · 19 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 18 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
461 picks · 289 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 465 bans
Mirana
297 picks · 114 bans
Clockwerk
293 picks · 301 bans
Dark Willow
289 picks · 122 bans
Bane
284 picks · 408 bans
Shadow Fiend
280 picks · 585 bans
Undying
271 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Pipsqueak+4 40%GamerLegion 60%
The model gave 60% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4.
Game 2prediction missed30:6
Pipsqueak+4 46%GamerLegion 54%
The model gave 54% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerrincyq
Shadow FiendTimado
Earth SpiritCopy
Ember SpiritRCY
LargoMalik
DoomFayde
Miranaaik
GrimstrokeBignum
Dark WillowEkki
BaneSpeeed
Game 3prediction missed34:29
Pipsqueak+4 48%GamerLegion 52%
The model gave 52% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 53:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerincyq
LinaRCY
Dark SeerMalik
TinyTimado
PangolierCopy
BrewmasterFayde
RubickEkki
HoodwinkSpeeed
Winter Wyvernaik
ClockwerkBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 60%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3