BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Hoodwinksignature
Lelis · 18 games
Pangolier
Jabz · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
rubikon155 · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 14 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 13 games
Enchantress
YamSun · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Lelis · 11 games
Lichsignature
YamSun · 10 games
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
461 picks · 294 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 473 bans
Mirana
295 picks · 111 bans
Clockwerk
292 picks · 326 bans
Bane
286 picks · 412 bans
Dark Willow
284 picks · 122 bans
Shadow Fiend
283 picks · 592 bans
Undying
272 picks · 366 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Team Nemesis 77%InterActive Philippines 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendJaCkky
SvenKarma丶
Dark SeerJabz
DoomJG
LinaKen
HoodwinkNARMAN
ClockwerkJhocam
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Team Nemesis 77%InterActive Philippines 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyJaCkky
TerrorbladeKarma丶
TimbersawJabz
Dark SeerJG
Ember SpiritKen
Dark WillowJhocam
BaneNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 91%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2