?
arrow_backBack to match
BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Dawn Bullswin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Klim Sani4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dawn Bulls

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xibbe · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
yamich · 2 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Se · 1 game
100%
Mirana
Mirana
Se · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 1 game
100%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Shad · 1 game
100%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Shad · 1 game
100%

Klim Sani4

Windranger
Windrangersignature
swedenstrong · 12 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
90%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 10 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
78%
Largo
Largosignature
Rein · 9 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
465 picks · 285 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 464 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
301 picks · 121 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
295 picks · 128 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
291 picks · 282 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
278 picks · 404 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
274 picks · 576 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 407 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 75%
Hero pool strength55% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:20
Dawn Bulls 38%Klim Sani4 62%
The model gave 62% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
43% · 120 games58% · 422 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanXibbe
40% · 92 games56% · 258 games
Kez423
Kez
Puck
PuckSancity
52% · 409 games51% · 313 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Techies
Techiesyamich
43% · 203 games50% · 411 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSe
51% · 741 game55% · 161 game
Winter WyvernRein
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed39:21
Dawn Bulls 40%Klim Sani4 60%
The model gave 60% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Dawn Bulls in 58:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreShad
50% · 32 games52% · 40 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
40% · 129 games50% · 359 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinySancity
48% · 330 games55% · 156 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Techies
Techiesyamich
48% · 154 games57% · 166 games
Winter WyvernRein
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSe
50% · 507 games50% · 431 game
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 64%
Series resultDawn Bulls 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2