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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Boredwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Bane
Banesignature
cml · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 8 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Bob · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomsignature
Tino- · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%

Team Bored

Bane
Baneoften banned
Varizh · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Tims · 1 game
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Raven · 1 game
100%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
100%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
Raven · 1 game
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mac · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Mac · 1 game
100%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Tims · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
459 picks · 285 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 458 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
300 picks · 118 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
292 picks · 127 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
290 picks · 282 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
274 picks · 402 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
273 picks · 572 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bored
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:63
Execration 53%Team Bored 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Bored in 1:27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosPalos
51% · 114 games53% · 119 games
Lone DruidTraVins
Lone Druid
Puck
PuckBob
47% · 334 games55% · 121 game
Night StalkerRaven
Night Stalker
Undying
UndyingTino-
47% · 118 games50% · 466 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
40% · 134 games57% · 252 games
Keeper of the LightTims
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkShanks
48% · 451 game52% · 193 games
Winter WyvernVarizh
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Execration 53%Team Bored 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 38:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerPalos
42% · 333 games62% · 43 games
Naga SirenTraVins
Naga Siren
Slark
SlarkBob
59% · 91 game54% · 124 games
Dark SeerRaven
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTino-
45% · 155 games54% · 393 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShanks
40% · 290 games49% · 520 games
HoodwinkVarizh
Hoodwink
Bane
Banecml
53% · 275 games48% · 64 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed14:53
Execration 53%Team Bored 47%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Team Bored in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
55% · 435 games56% · 103 games
JuggernautTraVins
Juggernaut
Underlord
UnderlordTino-
36% · 289 games48% · 427 games
PuckMac
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireBob
48% · 424 games51% · 122 games
LycanRaven
Lycan
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterShanks
47% · 78 games54% · 133 games
MiranaTims
Mirana
Bane
Banecml
53% · 286 games52% · 727 games
HoodwinkVarizh
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultTeam Bored 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3