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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 39 games
72%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
76%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 19 games
74%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 642 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 443 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 550 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 183 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
289 picks · 178 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:35
Team Falcons 64%Gaimin Gladiators 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
51% · 117 games50% · 99 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorATF
38% · 64 games52% · 117 games
InvokerQuinn
Invoker
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
53% · 158 games54% · 62 games
VenomancerAce
Venomancer
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
53% · 94 games47% · 97 games
Monkey KingtOfu
Monkey King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
56% · 49 games47% · 107 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Game 2prediction missed28:38
Team Falcons 66%Gaimin Gladiators 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
54% · 193 games42% · 34 games
Broodmotherdyrachyo
Broodmother
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
53% · 213 games43% · 298 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarATF
64% · 75 games49% · 202 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
55% · 153 games39% · 105 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Io
IoSneyking
61% · 41 game39% · 36 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2