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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 5 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Abed · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
100%

Aurora Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 642 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
314 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 443 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 550 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
289 picks · 183 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
289 picks · 178 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 376 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:22
Blacklist International 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNatsumi
50% · 171 game48% · 95 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Mars
MarsGabbi
50% · 222 games41% · 191 game
TimbersawLorenof
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbed
52% · 256 games44% · 25 games
VisageJabz
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
48% · 113 games54% · 310 games
TinyQ
Tiny
Venomancer
VenomancerJaunuel
57% · 59 games54% · 200 games
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:5
Blacklist International 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
54% · 72 games45% · 186 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
57% · 130 games48% · 34 games
Shadow Fiend23savage
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGabbi
53% · 207 games53% · 132 games
SlardarJabz
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
38% · 74 games47% · 64 games
ClinkzQ
Clinkz
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
55% · 172 games50% · 239 games
Crystal MaidenOli
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2